The US four-week moving average of initial claims for unemployment insurance rose by 3,000 last week to 270,750 from the previous week’s unrevised average, according to seasonally adjusted numbers released today by the US Department of Labor.
The four-week moving average decreases the volatility of the weekly numbers. Total initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended Nov. 14 fell by 5,000 to 271,000 from the previous week’s unrevised level.
No special factors affected this week’s initial claims.
Bloomberg reported claims fell less than the median forecast in its survey of 46 economists, which projected claims would fall to 270,000.
“The trend in initial claims remains very encouraging,” Ryan Sweet, a senior economist at Moody’s Analytics Inc. who accurately projected the decrease in claims, told Bloomberg. “The job market continues to motor toward full employment, and we should be there by this time next year.”
The higher average during the survey period signals that “job growth is going to slow” in November, Sweet said. He said he doesn’t think October’s 271,000 gain in non-farm payrolls is sustainable. “We’re going to see job growth pull back toward trend, which is 200,000 to 225,000 and still very solid.”